Drop of Almost 5,000 Last Month is Second Largest in the Last Two Years

BadgerCare enrollment fell by about 5,000 people in December, including about 1,760 children. I presume that the policy changes implemented in July account for some of drop, and perhaps most of it; however, the reduced participation among children – who aren’t directly affected by the changes – makes me wonder whether economic factors (such as employment gains) played a significant role in last month’s enrollment decline.  I hope we can get additional data from DHS to shed light on the causes for December’s precipitous drop, which was the second largest in the last two years.   

In the first six months after the policy changes were initiated, BadgerCare enrollment has decreased by more than 23,500 people (including almost 17,100 parents/caretakers, over 3,700 non-caretaker adults, and more than 1,800 children).  As we noted in a September blog post, the department’s 2013-15 budget request indicated DHS was assuming at that time that the July policy changes were expected to reduce enrollment of adults by about 21,500 by the end of the current fiscal year.Almost half of the decline from July through December was among parents and caretakers who are in Transitional Medical Assistance (TMA). In a blog post last week, I examined the DHS data relating to adults who were dropped from BadgerCare for failing to pay a premium. As that post noted, the largest decline (in percentage terms) has been among the relatively small group of adults in TMA who have incomes over 200% of the poverty level. Until last July, none of the adults in the Transitional category were subject to premiums during the 12 months after an increase in income lifted them above the poverty level.

Although some of the enrollment trends fluctuate from one month to the next, that has not been the case for participation in the BadgerCare Core Plan, which serves adults without dependent children. Enrollment in that plan has been steadily declining by almost 3% every month – because of attrition that occurs as people come up for their annual renewal or get offers of employer coverage, coupled with a moratorium on new enrollment.

Core Plan participation has dropped from more than 65,000 in January 2010 to only 20,561 in December, and ABC for Health reports that there are more than 146,000 people on the Core Plan waiting list. Lawmakers could fill the large gap in BadgerCare and serve most of the adults on that waiting list by using the option in the Affordable Care Act to provide Medicaid benefits to all adults below 138% of the federal poverty level. 

Jon Peacock