New figures released by federal officials Tuesday show that nearly 4.2 million people picked a private health insurance plan through the federal Marketplace by March 1, including more than 71,000 in Wisconsin. In addition, nearly 69,000 Wisconsinites who applied through the Marketplace were found eligible for Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP).
That adds up to a very respectable total of slightly over 140,000 individuals, but keep in mind that not all of the people in those two groups are actually enrolled. In some cases they hadn’t enrolled because they haven’t paid a premium yet, and in many other cases because of the postponement of eligibility changes in Wisconsin until April 1.
About 6 months ago the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a memo laying out national and state targets for private enrollment through the Marketplace, on a month-by-month basis. Nationally the number of people who have selected a plan is 25% below the 5-month target (of 5.6 million people), but the Wisconsin figure is 13% above the CMS goal for our state. (See the table in this updated and interesting NY Times resource.)
Although I think it’s good news that Wisconsin is ahead of the 5-month objective set by CMS, I suspect that can be explained by targets that don’t carefully account for all the state-level variables. As CMS was setting those objectives, I don’t think it was taking into account that a few states would have increased need for coverage in the Marketplace because they were ending Medicaid eligibility for many adults. Among the 4 states that reduced adult eligibility, Wisconsin and two others are well above their CMS enrollment targets for Marketplace coverage.
It’s important to keep in mind that the current CMS figures don’t show how many of the people who were found eligible and have selected an insurance plan have actually paid their first premium. I strongly suspect that the percentage who haven’t paid for Marketplace coverage is much higher in Wisconsin than in most other states because of the number of current BadgerCare participants whose switch to Marketplace coverage has been delayed. They used the Marketplace to select private plans but have delayed paying their first premium because of the 3-month extension of their BadgerCare coverage.
A somewhat disappointing part of the new data for Wisconsin is that just 21% of the initial sign-ups are in the age range of 18-34, compared to 25% nationally. (See the NY Times analysis.) Some argue that we are trailing other states in covering that sought-after age group because Wisconsin isn’t spending on advertising. Another possible factor is that our stronger-than-anticipated total enrollment is primarily among older groups who are losing their BadgerCare coverage.
As I wrote a month ago, the current numbers aren’t as complete as we would like, and I suspect they will be in a state of flux for the next few months. Nevertheless, they clearly show a very strong level of public interest in getting health insurance, as well as significant progress in making that happen.
Jon Peacock
