WCCF has been analyzing the significant decline of children enrolled in the Wisconsin Shares child care subsidy program. This blog looks at two significant trends:

• Statewide drop in children served: An extraordinary drop overall drop of 13,566 children, a 23% drop from 2009-2014.
• The smaller the county the greater the drop in children served: The decline in children served gets steeper from the most populous counties to the least populous counties (from a 19% drop to a 54% drop). Children served by tribes also show a steep decline (44%).

                                                   23% Statewide Decline

Analysis of decline of children enrolled in Wisconsin Shares by counties and tribes

County analysis: Further analysis finds that the smaller the county (in population) the greater the decline. The 15 most populous counties have experienced a 19% drop and the percent decline gets greater, the smaller the county. The least populous counties show a whopping decline of 54%.

Note: The calculations above are based on average children per month in each year.

For reference, see list of Wisconsin counties by population go to: list of Wisconsin counties by population

Why is there such a steep decline in children enrolled in Wisconsin Shares?

We can only speculate on possible causes. Here are some trends that may have a particularly large impact on more rural areas:

• A decline in family child care programs in general may be leading to fewer regulated care available, particularly certified family child care (over a 70% drop) and licensed family child care (over a 30% drop). Families in rural areas are more likely to use family child care programs.
• More expectations for child care programs from YoungStar.
• Reduced Wisconsin Shares payments with the rate freeze, the 5% cut for 2-Star programs, and paying only for attended days for family child care.

Readers: Do you have other explanations?

Dave Edie, WCCF Early Education Policy Analyst